Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Playing catch up...
It is redundant to state I am behind, because it is always the case. Kudos to bloggers that keep their blogs updated in ~realtime!
So, what's been going on???
Alert for 12/4/2007--TRAK, a new, small company mentioned some time back. Stock gapped lower a few months back, filled right away, but drifted lower. Alert set for $40, stock closed at $39. I will place a 1/2 position tomorrow morning after going over the fundis and still feeling good. No options available...
Candidate for 11/29/2007--PFG, looking for pullback to $61.25, candidate found at $65.55. Could play the Jun08 55 calls for ~$15.50. More info in my Powerpoint, if I can get it uploaded...
Candidate for 11/30/2007--AIZ, looking for pullback to $58.40, found at $65.43. Could play Jun08 55 calls for $13.80.
Alert for HWAY triggered 11/21/2007 at $52.80. Paper traded the $40 May08 calls for $13.00. Target of 19.50 likely hit, but I have been behind on this trade, not entered it into QuoteTracker and alerts are not set. BAD TRADER.
Crap, my spreadsheet is all wacked, no worries for now...
JASO: Stock hit may alert at $48 on 11/27/2007, and I paper traded the $40 Jun08 calls for 17.20 (huge premium, volatility based!). Target of $25.80 hit a few days later representing a 50% gain. Still have the position, did not paper sell yet, bad trader, but this is the reason for paper trading, working out the kinks...
NOTE--After reading the fantastic work at 1Option, I am going to start using the option ask/offer price rather than the bid/ask average because these options are thinly traded and I cannot expect the market maker to meet me in the middle...
I'll post more later, including the Powerpoints if I can.
Masterjaz out
So, what's been going on???
Candidate for 12/4/2007--NOK, a big name company for a change, but with a big name comes liquid options, LEAPS, and some stability. Looking for a pullback to $35 before buying Jul08 or Jan09 $30 calls (cost ~$10). Using a new system for tracking trades, importing screenshots of relavent info into Powerpoint. I'll see if I can link or embed it soon.
Alert for 12/4/2007--TRAK, a new, small company mentioned some time back. Stock gapped lower a few months back, filled right away, but drifted lower. Alert set for $40, stock closed at $39. I will place a 1/2 position tomorrow morning after going over the fundis and still feeling good. No options available...
Candidate for 11/29/2007--PFG, looking for pullback to $61.25, candidate found at $65.55. Could play the Jun08 55 calls for ~$15.50. More info in my Powerpoint, if I can get it uploaded...
Candidate for 11/30/2007--AIZ, looking for pullback to $58.40, found at $65.43. Could play Jun08 55 calls for $13.80.
Alert for HWAY triggered 11/21/2007 at $52.80. Paper traded the $40 May08 calls for $13.00. Target of 19.50 likely hit, but I have been behind on this trade, not entered it into QuoteTracker and alerts are not set. BAD TRADER.
Crap, my spreadsheet is all wacked, no worries for now...
JASO: Stock hit may alert at $48 on 11/27/2007, and I paper traded the $40 Jun08 calls for 17.20 (huge premium, volatility based!). Target of $25.80 hit a few days later representing a 50% gain. Still have the position, did not paper sell yet, bad trader, but this is the reason for paper trading, working out the kinks...
NOTE--After reading the fantastic work at 1Option, I am going to start using the option ask/offer price rather than the bid/ask average because these options are thinly traded and I cannot expect the market maker to meet me in the middle...
I'll post more later, including the Powerpoints if I can.
Masterjaz out
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Paper Buy and Real Sell...
Wow, another stock drops 12.5% from my averaged down entry and I sold in the morning, it was MCHP. I did collect a 1+% divy and sold just above my stop loss, so it is likely a 10% loss instead, but still...I should not have been buying in the crappy markets, but I did not have the indicators, wherewithall, to realize it at the time. Always learning.
Paper trading JASO after it tagged the $48 level late in the day. The options are crazy expensive with implied volatility. Bought the 40 Jun08 call for $17.20. Yep, monster 19% premium. But if the stock moves I'm fine, but I am paying up for volatility and I don't know if I like that...
For now,
Masterjaz out
Paper trading JASO after it tagged the $48 level late in the day. The options are crazy expensive with implied volatility. Bought the 40 Jun08 call for $17.20. Yep, monster 19% premium. But if the stock moves I'm fine, but I am paying up for volatility and I don't know if I like that...
For now,
Masterjaz out
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
One of many belated updates...
Just too much messing around along with crappy markets, I'm behind again.
Sold stock positions in LTM and SSYS after they hit my 12.5% stop loss. I am still very hesitant with these averaged down positions, and these two showed me why. Crappy stocks in a crappy market equals nice solid loses for me. That is the way it goes.
Speaking of averaging down, added to EMC after it breeched the $19 level. Looks like I could've gotten it cheaper, but that is the wrong way to think (thinking out loud just to show what my thought processes often look/sound like).
Option position in RYAAY stopped out for a solid 25% loss, possibly more given the stock gapped down 7% yesterday. Gaps are killer, COL gapped down this morning, but I doubt the bid/ask average would have necessitated a sell. RYAAY was a paper trade, but damn.
More to follow as I remember all the crap gone down,
Masterjaz out
Sold stock positions in LTM and SSYS after they hit my 12.5% stop loss. I am still very hesitant with these averaged down positions, and these two showed me why. Crappy stocks in a crappy market equals nice solid loses for me. That is the way it goes.
Speaking of averaging down, added to EMC after it breeched the $19 level. Looks like I could've gotten it cheaper, but that is the wrong way to think (thinking out loud just to show what my thought processes often look/sound like).
Option position in RYAAY stopped out for a solid 25% loss, possibly more given the stock gapped down 7% yesterday. Gaps are killer, COL gapped down this morning, but I doubt the bid/ask average would have necessitated a sell. RYAAY was a paper trade, but damn.
More to follow as I remember all the crap gone down,
Masterjaz out
Friday, November 16, 2007
EGN Alert...
In the midst of option expiration volitility, EGN triggered an alert after trading at $61. Quickly scanned the options and decided on 50 Apr08 call for $13.70, stock at ~$61.25. Provides 4.37X leverage, 2.3% premium, stop at $10.30, target $20.50. If playing the stock, it would've been 1/2 position here and another half at $58.75 per previous post.
No candidates for a while. Nothing is catching my eye. I am carefully watching SSYS as it has been with 1% of my 12.5% stop loss (for stock trades). Hopefully the markets will find some footing here given the holidays and then the stock can base slightly higher from where it is now. Only time will tell and I'll sell when if needed, no questions asked.
Masterjaz out
No candidates for a while. Nothing is catching my eye. I am carefully watching SSYS as it has been with 1% of my 12.5% stop loss (for stock trades). Hopefully the markets will find some footing here given the holidays and then the stock can base slightly higher from where it is now. Only time will tell and I'll sell when if needed, no questions asked.
Masterjaz out
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Two candidates (11-13-07)
Great day today, but I am still holding my breath and looking for more candidates. Found 2--
EGN: Paper trade the 50 Apr08 calls for $14.40 with a stock price of $62.93. A patient trader would wait for buy levels of $61 and $58.75. Depending on oil prices, these levels may come sooner than later.
STRA: Paper trade the 150 Apr08 calls for $37.70 with a closing stock price today of $179.79. Again, support levels would be right here ~$180 and then ~$168. In reality, these options could cost too much for my small trading account, but for a paper trade, I'll roll with them.
For now,
Masterjaz out
EGN: Paper trade the 50 Apr08 calls for $14.40 with a stock price of $62.93. A patient trader would wait for buy levels of $61 and $58.75. Depending on oil prices, these levels may come sooner than later.
STRA: Paper trade the 150 Apr08 calls for $37.70 with a closing stock price today of $179.79. Again, support levels would be right here ~$180 and then ~$168. In reality, these options could cost too much for my small trading account, but for a paper trade, I'll roll with them.
For now,
Masterjaz out
Forgot JASO
This is a candidate that got away from me. Never entered my alerts, so the sell-off yesterday was not capitalized upon. Oh well. I will wait for a pullback to $48, my original second buy level, before initiating any activity.
Just thought I should be thurough.
Masterjaz out
Just thought I should be thurough.
Masterjaz out
COL buy, EMC hold
The markets are bouncing today, limiting my ability to add to necessary positions, ala EMC near $19. The trials and tribulations of dealing with FolioFN trading windows. I will wait and watch for a pullback before entering my second 1/2 postion.
In the meantime, COL fired off an alert this morning as it pulled back to $73. Paper trading the 60 Apr08 calls, premium of $15.35. Lotsa leverage with this trade, but still a reasonable delta and %premium. As always, a 25% stop loss and 50% target. $71 looks like the next level of support, if I had the funds to average in.
A thought about averaging in: This is the first time in a long time I have been averaging down on major positions (EMC, SSYS, LTM) and I am curious to see the results. Either I have been lucky to have good candidate stocks decline thru two buy levels, or I've been setting myself up for a major drawdown. It will take months to know the answer, but I'll be watching.
Need to also purchase another 1/2 position in WBD as it has reached the +25% mark ($131.50), was hoping for $125, but it did not stay there long...
For now,
Masterjaz out
In the meantime, COL fired off an alert this morning as it pulled back to $73. Paper trading the 60 Apr08 calls, premium of $15.35. Lotsa leverage with this trade, but still a reasonable delta and %premium. As always, a 25% stop loss and 50% target. $71 looks like the next level of support, if I had the funds to average in.
A thought about averaging in: This is the first time in a long time I have been averaging down on major positions (EMC, SSYS, LTM) and I am curious to see the results. Either I have been lucky to have good candidate stocks decline thru two buy levels, or I've been setting myself up for a major drawdown. It will take months to know the answer, but I'll be watching.
Need to also purchase another 1/2 position in WBD as it has reached the +25% mark ($131.50), was hoping for $125, but it did not stay there long...
For now,
Masterjaz out
Monday, November 12, 2007
Screwed...
EMC is just tanking without pause. So, I ended up taking a 25% hit on my options play and sold out. Thank goodness it was on paper, but next time... Also, I'll be buying more tomorrow AM as my $19 target was hit and I'll complete my second 1/2 position.
This is going to be a true test of my abilities as the markets just look like crap. My portfolio has big winners and losers on a daily basis and I think managers are chasing returns. If I pick the wrong stock (ehhem EMC) then I'll be toast, if I pick a winner than I'll be gravy.
FTI sent off an alert at the market open (tanked along with oil). The play was 42.50 Apr08 calls for $16.70 with an alert stock price of $57. Stock continued to decline in the AM and is below $55 as I type. Paper trade here. Next level of support looks to be $55 otherwise it may see $50. Ouch.
For now,
Masterjaz out
This is going to be a true test of my abilities as the markets just look like crap. My portfolio has big winners and losers on a daily basis and I think managers are chasing returns. If I pick the wrong stock (ehhem EMC) then I'll be toast, if I pick a winner than I'll be gravy.
FTI sent off an alert at the market open (tanked along with oil). The play was 42.50 Apr08 calls for $16.70 with an alert stock price of $57. Stock continued to decline in the AM and is below $55 as I type. Paper trade here. Next level of support looks to be $55 otherwise it may see $50. Ouch.
For now,
Masterjaz out
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Weekend update...
Things move fast in a falling market, too many alerts, too many choices, but that is for what I live.
EMC: Stock continued to decline, so I actually purchased a half position on Thursday around $20, and will continue to monitor the paper traded options as well. Officially, I have ~4.93 shrs at $20.275.
SSYS: Previous stock purchase as retraced lower and I filled my final 1/2 position on Thursday as well. Bought ~4.33 shrs @ $23.075. In total, I now have ~8.2 shrs with a cost basis of $24.40. I also now can calculate a stop of $21.35 and an initial target of $30.50.
I am a little worried about these new positions and the market in general, it is not looking healthy, but as I mentioned above, these troubling times also are ripe for opportunity.
JASO: a Barchart downgrade that, while speculative, may be worth pursuing. One problem is the HUGE premium for options, >10%! I would consider a purchase of the 30 Jun08 calls for $28.70. Huge spread, huge premium and low leverage. But given the moves the stock can make, it seems prudent. Close on Friday was $54.51, but I would wait for a pullback to $52 or even $48 before buying in. This is a slow, patient, wait and see kind of trade, especially given the markets. Let the markets sell off, the mo-mo players leave and then pick up a position on the cheap.
That's it for now,
Masterjaz out
EMC: Stock continued to decline, so I actually purchased a half position on Thursday around $20, and will continue to monitor the paper traded options as well. Officially, I have ~4.93 shrs at $20.275.
SSYS: Previous stock purchase as retraced lower and I filled my final 1/2 position on Thursday as well. Bought ~4.33 shrs @ $23.075. In total, I now have ~8.2 shrs with a cost basis of $24.40. I also now can calculate a stop of $21.35 and an initial target of $30.50.
I am a little worried about these new positions and the market in general, it is not looking healthy, but as I mentioned above, these troubling times also are ripe for opportunity.
JASO: a Barchart downgrade that, while speculative, may be worth pursuing. One problem is the HUGE premium for options, >10%! I would consider a purchase of the 30 Jun08 calls for $28.70. Huge spread, huge premium and low leverage. But given the moves the stock can make, it seems prudent. Close on Friday was $54.51, but I would wait for a pullback to $52 or even $48 before buying in. This is a slow, patient, wait and see kind of trade, especially given the markets. Let the markets sell off, the mo-mo players leave and then pick up a position on the cheap.
That's it for now,
Masterjaz out
