Friday, October 27, 2006
Candidates from 10-26-2006...
Running way behind because of a variety of things, but here are a couple candidates I am watching for possible investments: ESI, CPA, APPB
The CPA is a little speculative and has had an amazing run and APPB does not have a pretty long-term chart, but may be good for the future. I'll post the other info I usually do later today or this weekend.
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz
The CPA is a little speculative and has had an amazing run and APPB does not have a pretty long-term chart, but may be good for the future. I'll post the other info I usually do later today or this weekend.
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
After the close 10-24-2006...
A couple of nice candidates for long term positions in well established companies:
PNM: Decent fundis, high institutional ownership, good divy, low volume, okay chart (cup or saucer, maybe a handle?), look for entry at $27.50 with initial target greater than $29.00 (highest level in 3 yrs.).
ALFA: Good fundis, low institutional ownership, good divy, low volume, great chart, low analyst coverage, look for entry at half position entry at $17.30 (50dma) with additional position at $16.65 with an initial target above $19.00 (all-time high). Tricky positioning due to the relentless upward trend over the last 3mo. The 1/2 and 1/2 positioning will protect the downside, but catch an upside move after testing the 50dma.
Note: All these stocks have low volume and may be difficult to get good prices, but given the longer term horizon for these stocks, a penny or two will not be detrimental.
PNM: Decent fundis, high institutional ownership, good divy, low volume, okay chart (cup or saucer, maybe a handle?), look for entry at $27.50 with initial target greater than $29.00 (highest level in 3 yrs.).
ALFA: Good fundis, low institutional ownership, good divy, low volume, great chart, low analyst coverage, look for entry at half position entry at $17.30 (50dma) with additional position at $16.65 with an initial target above $19.00 (all-time high). Tricky positioning due to the relentless upward trend over the last 3mo. The 1/2 and 1/2 positioning will protect the downside, but catch an upside move after testing the 50dma.
Note: All these stocks have low volume and may be difficult to get good prices, but given the longer term horizon for these stocks, a penny or two will not be detrimental.
After the close 10-23-2006...
No good candidates from barchart after the close today. Not a surprise given the strong market performace. A couple of banks were 'downgraded', but only traded ~50k shares per day and that is too little volume. So, I am sticking with the stocks posted after the close on Friday (posted on Sunday). For the record, most of the stocks posted on Sunday were either flat or up. So, I'll check on stocks after the close on Tuesday to see if anything pops up.
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz out
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz out
Sunday, October 22, 2006
10-20-2006 Watch List...
A couple nice candidates from Barchart on Friday:
DSCP: Okay chart, high volatility, low volume, no debt, good divy, earnings 10-31 often misses!, look for $32.75 entry and $38 initial target.
BDC: Good chart, decent volume, okay debt, divy, >100% institutional earnings, earnings 10-27, look for $37 entry and $54 is all-time high.
AIB: Okay chart, high volatility and gaps, low volume, good divy, declining debt/equity (bank), earnings ~11-1, look for ~$52 and initial target of $60 (round # near 20%).
HZO: Good looking chart, rising debt, >100% institutional ownership, earnings 10-27, look for $25 entry and $30 initial target.
DSCP: Okay chart, high volatility, low volume, no debt, good divy, earnings 10-31 often misses!, look for $32.75 entry and $38 initial target.
BDC: Good chart, decent volume, okay debt, divy, >100% institutional earnings, earnings 10-27, look for $37 entry and $54 is all-time high.
AIB: Okay chart, high volatility and gaps, low volume, good divy, declining debt/equity (bank), earnings ~11-1, look for ~$52 and initial target of $60 (round # near 20%).
HZO: Good looking chart, rising debt, >100% institutional ownership, earnings 10-27, look for $25 entry and $30 initial target.
My method...
Finding longer term trades requires a slightly different mindset than finding swing trades. While both methods look for stocks that are oversold and ready to rally, but longer term trades require higher quality stocks that can withstand both the pressure of selling and the desire for buying. That is, bargain hunters should want this stock as others (swing traders, momentum players, etc.) leave.
Finding Stocks:
I use www.barchart.com exclusively for finding candidates. After the market close (usually 6 pm EST) the website posts 'downgrades' or stocks that have changed significantly when considering their technical indicators. I first select all 100 downgraded stocks and then sort by "Today's opinion". Stocks with opinions above 24% are for me. Usually these are stocks that are trending up, but suffered a (hopfully) temporary pullback due to earnings, downgrade, news, etc.
After finding stocks above 24%, I then look for stocks with at least 100k volume based on the last 5 days. I don't actually calculate the exact mean, but estimate. After removing those that do not qualify, I look for stocks with positive earnings. To do this, select the "Report History" page on the left hand side. Here I look for stocks with rising Total Revenue, Net Income, Earnings per Share. On the flipside, I also look for declining debt. I prefer to see a dividend, flat or declining share count, and increasing or flat margins.
After removing stocks that do not look good on the "Report History" page, I go to the "Detailed Report" and look at the quarterly earnings to confirm previous information (earnings, rev., share count, etc.). I also look at the institutional ownership. I don't like if >90% is owned by institutions because liquidity is controlled by the large players and can control the price (or so it appears).
Finally, I look at the chart to get an idea of intraday volatility, general trend, and possible support and resistance areas. No real criteria here, just to see what is going on in terms of price. Finally, I visit www.starmine.com to see how the company is expected to due at the next earnings, the date of next earnings (estimated), and the historical earnings (especially if they often miss or exceed).
I post those stocks that fulfill all these steps and give you my two cents for good entry and exit prices. Please do your own due diligence and do not rely solely on my recommendations. I am not responsible for your losses or wins. These are just my opinions.
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz
Finding Stocks:
I use www.barchart.com exclusively for finding candidates. After the market close (usually 6 pm EST) the website posts 'downgrades' or stocks that have changed significantly when considering their technical indicators. I first select all 100 downgraded stocks and then sort by "Today's opinion". Stocks with opinions above 24% are for me. Usually these are stocks that are trending up, but suffered a (hopfully) temporary pullback due to earnings, downgrade, news, etc.
After finding stocks above 24%, I then look for stocks with at least 100k volume based on the last 5 days. I don't actually calculate the exact mean, but estimate. After removing those that do not qualify, I look for stocks with positive earnings. To do this, select the "Report History" page on the left hand side. Here I look for stocks with rising Total Revenue, Net Income, Earnings per Share. On the flipside, I also look for declining debt. I prefer to see a dividend, flat or declining share count, and increasing or flat margins.
After removing stocks that do not look good on the "Report History" page, I go to the "Detailed Report" and look at the quarterly earnings to confirm previous information (earnings, rev., share count, etc.). I also look at the institutional ownership. I don't like if >90% is owned by institutions because liquidity is controlled by the large players and can control the price (or so it appears).
Finally, I look at the chart to get an idea of intraday volatility, general trend, and possible support and resistance areas. No real criteria here, just to see what is going on in terms of price. Finally, I visit www.starmine.com to see how the company is expected to due at the next earnings, the date of next earnings (estimated), and the historical earnings (especially if they often miss or exceed).
I post those stocks that fulfill all these steps and give you my two cents for good entry and exit prices. Please do your own due diligence and do not rely solely on my recommendations. I am not responsible for your losses or wins. These are just my opinions.
Happy Trading,
Masterjaz
A new Beginning...
For those who know my other blog mjaz-trades.blogspot.com I am adding a second blog for longer term plays (weeks to months to years). I have a methodology for finding high quality stocks that suffer a decline (often overdone) due to poor earnings, news, etc. I find these stocks, check their fundamentals, glance at the chart, and make a play. Many of my long term IRA holdings are stocks found using this system.
In the next couple posts I will go over the method, show some results, and post watch lists. This block will not be as time intensive as my other, but is better for those without the time needed for the quick swing trades.
Thanks all,
Masterjaz out
In the next couple posts I will go over the method, show some results, and post watch lists. This block will not be as time intensive as my other, but is better for those without the time needed for the quick swing trades.
Thanks all,
Masterjaz out
