Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Stock from Monday's downgrades...
I found CUB using my usual Barchart downgrade's methodology on Monday after the close. Good looking stock in general, but I am concerned about valuation as it has just exploded in the last 6 months. Okay, the rundown:
Stock down on a downgrade--PERFECT!
Total Revenue--Great
Net Income--Started early 2000's nice, but hit an air pocket in 2005 and are now trying to come back
EPS--Follows net income
Margins--Rising since 2005, but below 5 year high
Debt--Being paid down
Share count--Flat
Year-over-year--Looking great, almost 100% increase
Dividend--Nice to see, a little low
Institutional Ownership--Nice at 40%
Short Stats--~9% in August, 5.2 Ratio,
Earnings--Good history of beating earnings although some major misses, good y-o-y growth since 2005.
In short, I like it. It took off this afternoon, but I am not going to rush into this trade given the stock's lofty run of recent. Looking for $39.50, although ultra-conservative would be ~$34. That would give me an initial stop loss around $36.50 and first target of $49.375. I'll enter alerts and see what happens...
For now,
Masterjaz out
Stock down on a downgrade--PERFECT!
Total Revenue--Great
Net Income--Started early 2000's nice, but hit an air pocket in 2005 and are now trying to come back
EPS--Follows net income
Margins--Rising since 2005, but below 5 year high
Debt--Being paid down
Share count--Flat
Year-over-year--Looking great, almost 100% increase
Dividend--Nice to see, a little low
Institutional Ownership--Nice at 40%
Short Stats--~9% in August, 5.2 Ratio,
Earnings--Good history of beating earnings although some major misses, good y-o-y growth since 2005.
In short, I like it. It took off this afternoon, but I am not going to rush into this trade given the stock's lofty run of recent. Looking for $39.50, although ultra-conservative would be ~$34. That would give me an initial stop loss around $36.50 and first target of $49.375. I'll enter alerts and see what happens...
For now,
Masterjaz out
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Weekend update...
I realized that I have not posted in a week and want to catch all my non-readers up to date. I did buy into WDC after finding it and had to sell BRLC for a significant loss after my stop was hit. Net-net, it has been a good month for long-term and intermediate-term trading.
WDC: I bought a half position at $22.37 on the 17th. I am still looking for my $21.75 target before adding the second half.
BRLC: Stock just could not overcome the negative news and of course, I sold right at the bottom. Literally 2 cents away, but I would rather take a loss being systematic and objective than get lucky being subjective. I did blow my initial setup and set the wrong stop loss. It was only 5 cents, but an entire percent with even larger slippage. Lesson learned...
WBD: This is another trade from earlier in the month that is continuing to perform, even with another downgrade...followed by an intiation at outperform...in short, nobody knows anything and I am going to hold. I as still only in with a half position and am waiting for ~$101.
I did find USM as a decent candidate, but it is super volatile. I may look to initiate a half position on Monday and then look for $91.15 to complete the position. This is a telecom stock, nice growth in sales, revenue, and margins(!). Debt is slighly high, but stable as is share count. Looks like earnings are accelerating! I tempt fate to say yesterday's sell-off was related to options expiration, not major selling. Another plus. The more I research, the more I like this stock.
Good times and I happy to have positions on the books before the friendly FOMC thru us longs a bone :)
For now,
Masterjaz out
WDC: I bought a half position at $22.37 on the 17th. I am still looking for my $21.75 target before adding the second half.
BRLC: Stock just could not overcome the negative news and of course, I sold right at the bottom. Literally 2 cents away, but I would rather take a loss being systematic and objective than get lucky being subjective. I did blow my initial setup and set the wrong stop loss. It was only 5 cents, but an entire percent with even larger slippage. Lesson learned...
WBD: This is another trade from earlier in the month that is continuing to perform, even with another downgrade...followed by an intiation at outperform...in short, nobody knows anything and I am going to hold. I as still only in with a half position and am waiting for ~$101.
I did find USM as a decent candidate, but it is super volatile. I may look to initiate a half position on Monday and then look for $91.15 to complete the position. This is a telecom stock, nice growth in sales, revenue, and margins(!). Debt is slighly high, but stable as is share count. Looks like earnings are accelerating! I tempt fate to say yesterday's sell-off was related to options expiration, not major selling. Another plus. The more I research, the more I like this stock.
Good times and I happy to have positions on the books before the friendly FOMC thru us longs a bone :)
For now,
Masterjaz out
Friday, September 14, 2007
A buy and a candidate...
A little late posting a buy, but at least the candidate is in near realtime.
I bought a half position in BRLC after it was just killed after reporting poor forward guidance on Wednesday. This will NOT be a long term holding, rather an intermediate trade will well determined, and well followed, stop loss, and targets. The stock does have solid fundamentals, but it is far to volatile to fit into my long term strategy. I bought in at $4.09 after watching the stock trade most of the day. I have a stop loss at $3.75 and an ultimate target of $5.05, all based on charting. (Although it is hard to really get a handle on the chart...). I will sell half of the position at $4.57, or half way to my target. Time will tell...
As for the candidate, found WDC after a Barchart Downgrade. Like the fundis, like the institutional ownership, but am a little concerned about growth rates, although the current P/E is just ridiculously low. I do like the yearing increasing margins, paying down debt, low share dilution, etc, etc. Anyways, a good set up, so I may put on a half position Monday AM, but would like to see $21.75 before adding the second half. Should give an initial stop loss just above $20.15, and an initial long term target of $27.25.
That's all for now,
Masterjaz out
I bought a half position in BRLC after it was just killed after reporting poor forward guidance on Wednesday. This will NOT be a long term holding, rather an intermediate trade will well determined, and well followed, stop loss, and targets. The stock does have solid fundamentals, but it is far to volatile to fit into my long term strategy. I bought in at $4.09 after watching the stock trade most of the day. I have a stop loss at $3.75 and an ultimate target of $5.05, all based on charting. (Although it is hard to really get a handle on the chart...). I will sell half of the position at $4.57, or half way to my target. Time will tell...
As for the candidate, found WDC after a Barchart Downgrade. Like the fundis, like the institutional ownership, but am a little concerned about growth rates, although the current P/E is just ridiculously low. I do like the yearing increasing margins, paying down debt, low share dilution, etc, etc. Anyways, a good set up, so I may put on a half position Monday AM, but would like to see $21.75 before adding the second half. Should give an initial stop loss just above $20.15, and an initial long term target of $27.25.
That's all for now,
Masterjaz out
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Interesting day, one buy, one candidate
Actually did something different today and looked at the Yahoo! Downgrades to see if I could find any Barchart technical downgrades before they are reported after the close. Turns out, I did. The stock is WBD, a Russian dairy, baby food, and beverage producer of all things. Had a UBS downgrade, fell 6% early, but had fantastic fundamentals that supported an initial half position. The only minor issues are the sloppy margins and rising debt. Turns out, I was successful in predicting it would be a Barchart downgrade as it turned out to be one. The question remains, what will happen tomorrow, although I am already up 2.5%? As for the second half of the position, I am looking for any decent pullback, hopefully to the $100 level. Check out the Motley Fool commentary, it's always nice to get confirmation. **EDIT: Guess I should read a little slower, the Motley Fool piece is quite negative, not the confirmation I first assumed, dope. Nonetheless, I'm in**
The other candidate has been a high flyer of recent, NVDA. Good solid fundamentals, marginally high institutional ownership, no debt, increasing margins, just a good story. At its current close, it is a nice, very short term entry point at the $33.10-$33.20 level. I would consider a half position in the morning if it remains here, otherwise, I would like to see a pullback to the $32 level to really see some good risk:reward values.
For now,
Masterjaz out
The other candidate has been a high flyer of recent, NVDA. Good solid fundamentals, marginally high institutional ownership, no debt, increasing margins, just a good story. At its current close, it is a nice, very short term entry point at the $33.10-$33.20 level. I would consider a half position in the morning if it remains here, otherwise, I would like to see a pullback to the $32 level to really see some good risk:reward values.
For now,
Masterjaz out
Monday, September 10, 2007
It has been a long time since I've posted...
Not that anyone reads this blog, right?, but I've come to the conclusion that I really like this method for finding stocks and it has paid off well recently. It looks like these canidates suffer less volatility compared to many others in recent market action.
Found one for Tuesday, the 11th.
CPLA: This stock actually has a 16% rating, below the usual 24% cut-off, but the recent market activity has not been providing many candidates...maybe a clue not to be buying...Nonetheless, the stock has nice fundamentals, decent institutional support, and a wonderful chart.
I'll be buying a 1/2 position tomorrow AM and then another 1/2 position if the stock ever retraces the $46 level (round number, 50dma, support).
For now, (sorry it is brief...),
Masterjaz out
Found one for Tuesday, the 11th.
CPLA: This stock actually has a 16% rating, below the usual 24% cut-off, but the recent market activity has not been providing many candidates...maybe a clue not to be buying...Nonetheless, the stock has nice fundamentals, decent institutional support, and a wonderful chart.
I'll be buying a 1/2 position tomorrow AM and then another 1/2 position if the stock ever retraces the $46 level (round number, 50dma, support).
For now, (sorry it is brief...),
Masterjaz out
